* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 08/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 57 62 67 71 77 81 83 85 88 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 57 62 67 71 65 40 40 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 52 56 61 66 72 69 41 43 52 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 5 3 7 1 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 272 268 265 259 325 300 287 15 15 56 249 18 28 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 148 151 154 160 165 172 168 161 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 152 152 155 155 158 161 171 164 152 144 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 13 12 11 11 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 64 66 70 76 77 81 80 78 80 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 67 86 101 94 73 63 64 55 32 35 49 62 200 MB DIV 59 45 54 36 35 40 55 58 72 52 42 43 34 700-850 TADV -6 2 6 0 0 -8 -8 -8 -6 -4 -8 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 270 201 239 241 211 289 77 91 -28 -93 77 150 118 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 19 18 18 16 13 12 12 12 11 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 62 42 60 107 38 35 24 88 35 18 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 22. 27. 31. 37. 41. 43. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.7 69.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 5.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 3.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 53.8% 39.6% 22.9% 16.0% 30.0% 37.2% Logistic: 17.0% 55.4% 41.1% 24.9% 0.0% 29.5% 44.2% Bayesian: 7.4% 35.1% 15.6% 1.6% 2.4% 10.5% 29.5% Consensus: 13.5% 48.1% 32.1% 16.5% 6.1% 23.3% 37.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 08/01/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 53 57 62 67 71 65 40 40 43 45 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 56 61 65 59 34 34 37 39 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 49 54 58 52 27 27 30 32 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 39 44 48 42 17 17 20 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT