* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 08/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 50 56 61 68 73 78 81 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 50 56 61 68 48 35 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 57 63 47 34 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 4 4 11 5 8 4 5 5 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 3 0 0 0 0 -5 -2 -2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 341 286 256 255 245 276 281 309 324 333 182 322 91 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 144 146 148 152 156 161 167 172 165 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 152 149 150 152 153 156 160 165 170 159 151 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 9 11 8 10 7 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 62 65 67 74 75 78 78 76 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 79 94 108 82 82 58 68 35 34 57 77 200 MB DIV 81 80 53 64 54 2 58 47 69 72 33 47 41 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 6 1 -9 -4 -6 -4 -9 -2 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 330 336 267 295 266 258 171 38 104 -159 -11 84 -21 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 19 19 18 15 13 13 12 13 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 66 50 54 31 60 55 30 26 31 51 46 17 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 26. 31. 38. 43. 48. 51. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 67.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.99 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.85 3.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 47.9% 29.9% 13.1% 10.2% 18.9% 30.8% Logistic: 13.1% 55.6% 35.6% 18.8% 0.0% 33.2% 53.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 33.2% 6.6% 0.4% 0.3% 3.0% 11.9% Consensus: 8.5% 45.6% 24.0% 10.8% 3.5% 18.3% 32.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 08/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 41 45 50 56 61 68 48 35 41 39 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 45 51 56 63 43 30 36 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 45 50 57 37 24 30 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 35 40 47 27 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT