* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 53 59 62 67 72 77 82 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 53 59 62 67 72 40 38 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 38 41 48 55 61 67 74 41 39 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 4 4 4 8 12 8 7 5 0 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 3 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 345 322 305 287 265 324 297 291 325 290 60 268 59 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 146 147 152 153 158 165 171 169 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 158 153 152 151 154 152 156 162 169 164 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 63 63 66 71 76 77 80 79 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 8 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 79 77 75 87 93 71 66 60 40 29 43 65 200 MB DIV 52 77 77 46 53 28 33 48 53 55 38 28 38 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 -3 0 -2 -9 -8 -5 -10 -3 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 374 322 326 228 237 179 293 164 138 0 -69 31 84 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.0 18.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 67.0 69.2 71.3 73.4 77.0 80.1 82.9 85.5 88.2 91.0 93.3 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 23 21 21 21 19 16 14 13 13 14 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 49 77 49 60 41 113 49 37 39 16 46 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 23. 29. 32. 37. 42. 47. 52. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 64.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.88 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 43.9% 27.0% 12.6% 10.0% 21.3% 26.6% Logistic: 22.1% 54.9% 36.9% 22.7% 0.0% 36.8% 52.4% Bayesian: 2.8% 43.7% 13.0% 1.4% 1.9% 5.8% 10.9% Consensus: 11.3% 47.5% 25.6% 12.2% 3.9% 21.3% 29.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 41 44 53 59 62 67 72 40 38 43 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 48 54 57 62 67 35 33 38 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 42 48 51 56 61 29 27 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 38 41 46 51 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT