* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 54 58 62 67 73 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 54 58 62 67 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 29 34 38 42 45 47 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 7 6 4 16 14 16 13 12 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 1 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 326 340 323 308 315 291 307 297 303 299 329 273 307 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 149 147 147 149 155 158 161 168 164 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 162 156 153 152 150 153 155 156 160 155 151 149 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 10 7 10 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 64 64 66 68 74 75 80 80 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 79 78 68 69 92 68 64 41 52 32 28 15 200 MB DIV 32 41 59 55 35 41 20 51 20 48 40 48 22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -8 -5 0 0 -4 -6 -7 -3 -3 8 -6 LAND (KM) 477 337 266 261 188 196 104 239 234 222 73 -121 10 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 21 20 20 19 16 14 13 12 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 50 90 48 58 55 99 73 48 52 38 83 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 29. 33. 37. 42. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 62.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.93 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 21.4% 11.8% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 41.6% 25.9% 14.1% 0.0% 26.5% 41.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% Consensus: 5.3% 23.1% 13.0% 8.1% 0.0% 9.0% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 54 58 62 67 46 39 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 37 44 52 56 60 65 44 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 40 48 52 56 61 40 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 40 44 48 53 32 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT