* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 54 65 74 82 92 99 104 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 54 65 74 82 92 99 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 46 54 64 73 84 95 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 6 8 6 6 3 6 11 7 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -2 1 -1 4 -1 -5 -6 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 287 315 328 304 297 301 274 341 332 20 13 43 321 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 153 149 148 152 156 155 157 159 163 166 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 167 163 157 153 156 158 152 152 150 157 161 157 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 12 13 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 65 63 64 66 71 76 79 82 83 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 11 9 9 7 10 13 14 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 73 83 78 76 84 85 84 78 77 92 58 53 200 MB DIV 37 32 41 64 51 56 41 35 52 52 78 49 46 700-850 TADV 2 1 -2 -8 -6 4 -7 -11 -5 -3 -4 1 -2 LAND (KM) 479 461 279 228 227 144 104 310 116 2 67 30 -118 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 16.8 16.6 16.1 15.9 16.4 18.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 62.6 65.1 67.3 69.5 73.7 77.5 80.7 83.0 84.8 86.1 87.6 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 26 25 23 21 21 19 17 13 10 7 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 46 42 68 67 48 56 95 42 34 28 23 34 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 35. 44. 52. 62. 69. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 60.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.28 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 125.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 23.0% 11.9% 10.5% 7.9% 9.8% 21.3% Logistic: 4.9% 29.0% 14.1% 4.8% 0.0% 12.8% 34.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 3.7% 19.1% 8.9% 5.1% 2.6% 7.6% 18.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 40 47 54 65 74 82 92 99 52 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 45 52 63 72 80 90 97 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 39 46 57 66 74 84 91 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 48 57 65 75 82 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT