* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 83 92 99 105 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 44 50 57 67 79 60 39 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 8 7 9 3 8 2 6 7 11 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 259 295 325 323 295 299 244 294 223 356 34 37 113 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 153 150 149 155 156 158 160 164 169 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 166 164 158 155 159 158 156 155 156 164 166 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 62 62 64 66 68 76 78 82 83 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 71 76 74 76 93 74 88 71 84 68 56 200 MB DIV 24 36 21 32 48 36 54 13 58 40 76 71 78 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -10 -1 0 -13 -3 -6 0 -3 6 LAND (KM) 606 498 439 248 190 124 100 253 111 -65 -47 37 -95 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 60.1 62.7 65.1 67.5 72.1 76.2 80.0 82.9 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 17 13 9 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 47 42 66 63 90 106 56 33 71 84 34 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 53. 62. 69. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 57.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 3.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 42.7% 27.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.4% 25.1% Logistic: 10.5% 44.2% 25.5% 13.7% 0.0% 28.0% 58.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 15.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.2% Consensus: 6.8% 34.1% 19.1% 8.9% 3.4% 14.2% 28.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 51 58 65 72 52 33 33 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 44 51 58 65 45 26 26 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 46 53 33 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT