* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 47 54 62 68 77 87 95 102 105 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 47 54 62 68 77 87 61 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 40 44 51 56 64 75 87 63 59 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 11 11 9 10 9 5 4 7 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 -3 3 -2 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 127 217 271 314 313 291 301 295 360 355 19 320 332 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 149 153 155 150 153 156 154 154 155 162 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 161 161 165 166 157 158 157 151 147 146 158 164 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 60 61 62 63 65 70 76 79 82 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 12 9 9 7 10 13 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 58 56 68 70 80 90 87 80 70 78 49 200 MB DIV 39 26 30 9 22 25 50 27 27 52 54 70 61 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 1 -2 -4 2 -6 -4 -3 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 844 651 575 388 162 140 121 143 250 39 -41 59 40 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.4 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 57.4 60.1 62.7 65.2 70.1 74.5 78.2 81.1 83.0 84.3 85.4 87.2 STM SPEED (KT) 28 27 26 25 24 22 20 16 12 8 6 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 49 34 54 41 67 55 60 83 30 19 71 35 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 27 CX,CY: -26/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -5. -2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 32. 38. 47. 57. 65. 72. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 54.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.24 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.93 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 25.9% 12.5% 11.0% 8.2% 9.8% 19.8% Logistic: 8.2% 26.4% 12.1% 4.9% 0.0% 17.2% 49.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 11.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 4.0% Consensus: 5.6% 21.1% 8.7% 5.4% 2.8% 9.1% 24.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 42 47 54 62 68 77 87 61 58 61 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 42 49 57 63 72 82 56 53 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 43 51 57 66 76 50 47 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 40 46 55 65 39 36 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT