* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 52 59 65 76 85 94 99 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 44 48 56 68 76 52 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 33 39 37 44 46 54 62 46 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 8 13 11 12 11 11 2 5 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 0 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 48 59 232 274 315 293 282 271 292 199 53 67 50 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 146 147 152 153 153 164 163 164 165 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 157 157 163 163 161 171 168 164 162 164 163 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 55 57 60 60 64 64 74 74 80 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 10 7 6 6 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 64 53 47 60 60 71 60 91 69 81 61 200 MB DIV 32 39 17 22 6 38 8 31 4 52 27 72 64 700-850 TADV 8 4 5 4 1 -5 -4 -3 -12 -3 -4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1021 884 714 616 488 48 0 -2 257 146 29 -39 -118 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.5 18.1 18.2 17.8 17.1 16.0 15.3 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.3 54.0 56.5 59.0 61.5 66.6 71.8 76.5 80.7 84.0 86.6 88.4 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 25 25 25 25 24 21 19 15 11 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 36 55 33 43 11 88 21 28 81 42 30 89 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 36. 41. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 27. 34. 40. 51. 60. 69. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 51.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.29 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.1% 9.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% Logistic: 3.8% 18.0% 7.1% 2.7% 0.0% 7.7% 25.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 11.9% 5.8% 3.7% 0.0% 2.6% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 46 44 48 56 68 76 52 35 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 43 41 45 53 65 73 49 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 37 35 39 47 59 67 43 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 26 30 38 50 58 34 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT