* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 41 47 54 59 65 74 84 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 41 47 46 48 54 51 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 37 33 38 42 40 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 8 10 15 20 16 17 14 2 2 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -4 0 -2 0 0 5 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 48 332 336 297 295 311 285 277 270 301 101 73 59 SST (C) 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.6 29.3 29.6 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 137 140 146 148 155 151 161 165 159 161 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 147 151 157 159 167 160 167 171 160 160 162 160 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 55 54 57 63 65 66 69 75 78 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 67 63 60 48 49 59 63 72 80 74 87 81 200 MB DIV 38 27 26 -1 13 28 20 37 16 23 37 53 83 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 1 5 0 -9 -4 -10 -9 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1116 1045 920 753 651 187 41 15 84 210 -31 -144 -100 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.0 18.2 17.7 16.8 15.6 14.4 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 51.2 53.8 56.3 58.9 64.2 69.6 74.6 78.9 82.5 85.1 86.8 87.8 STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 25 25 26 26 26 21 19 16 12 8 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 37 52 33 42 44 43 51 128 37 71 62 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 29. 34. 40. 49. 59. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 48.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.29 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.88 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 138.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.3% 10.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 12.4% Bayesian: 999.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 41 47 46 48 54 51 35 29 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 39 45 44 46 52 49 33 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 39 38 40 46 43 27 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 30 32 38 35 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT