* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 55 61 66 74 85 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 54 49 60 60 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 41 38 46 50 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 8 10 10 22 16 17 12 9 5 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 1 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 89 48 329 325 302 304 297 269 240 281 114 64 53 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 136 140 146 153 152 155 164 159 160 163 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 146 151 158 166 164 164 171 162 159 159 158 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 7 9 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 55 53 56 60 63 67 67 75 77 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 76 70 64 61 49 63 68 79 68 86 92 88 200 MB DIV 29 35 34 36 11 13 32 8 42 1 41 41 98 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -1 2 8 -11 -3 0 -11 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1231 1120 1049 944 768 443 24 0 -6 293 -1 -128 -119 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.9 17.1 17.8 18.1 17.8 17.0 15.8 14.6 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 48.5 51.1 53.6 56.2 61.7 67.3 72.8 77.4 81.4 84.3 86.3 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 24 21 17 13 9 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 18 36 52 32 47 50 47 46 42 24 56 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 36. 41. 49. 60. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 46.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.31 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 138.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.4% 11.1% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% Logistic: 2.5% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 54 49 60 60 40 31 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 46 52 47 58 58 38 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 40 46 41 52 52 32 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 37 32 43 43 23 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT