* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 51 55 61 68 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 30 32 33 35 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 15 23 26 20 21 18 8 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 1 312 312 308 288 294 276 263 264 259 222 91 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 134 138 147 156 152 166 171 165 166 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 137 144 149 160 170 163 175 175 167 168 173 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 52 51 55 60 63 63 65 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 73 67 52 53 31 46 51 42 56 64 67 200 MB DIV 18 25 34 29 33 9 21 11 24 9 25 38 46 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 16 0 -6 -5 -9 -7 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1318 1224 1163 1073 768 149 -58 88 161 223 49 -128 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.5 17.7 16.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 45.1 47.4 50.0 52.7 58.5 64.3 70.2 75.4 79.8 83.5 86.4 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 23 19 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 23 47 31 17 69 79 116 55 16 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 36. 43. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 42.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.9% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 999.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 37 39 43 49 56 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 32 34 38 44 51 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 25 29 35 42 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT