* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 46 49 51 52 55 59 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 46 49 51 45 37 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 39 40 39 34 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 9 14 18 29 26 32 30 27 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 1 0 1 0 1 -2 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 9 9 327 308 311 296 296 282 268 269 302 295 310 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.5 28.3 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 128 131 136 147 152 152 158 168 171 168 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 134 139 147 161 165 162 162 165 161 154 158 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 9 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 55 54 51 55 56 59 62 60 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 80 78 70 65 52 27 3 -24 -21 -27 -6 -14 200 MB DIV 3 21 27 32 41 18 8 16 3 21 6 30 17 700-850 TADV 1 -6 -3 3 9 9 19 -13 5 -9 -12 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 1562 1437 1317 1219 1175 873 329 100 84 -17 -44 6 130 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.8 17.4 18.7 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 43.2 45.5 48.1 50.8 56.6 62.6 68.4 73.8 77.9 81.1 83.3 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 24 26 28 29 29 27 23 17 13 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 6 12 35 25 42 37 57 5 103 16 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 30. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 41.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.78 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.4% 10.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 4.2% Bayesian: 999.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 41 46 49 51 45 37 38 40 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 38 43 46 48 42 34 35 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 37 40 42 36 28 29 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 31 33 27 19 20 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT