* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 44 49 52 52 54 58 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 44 49 52 52 54 58 43 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 31 33 33 32 30 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 6 4 17 21 36 30 37 31 21 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 2 2 -1 2 -5 0 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 106 34 27 18 349 304 288 285 273 276 274 324 313 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.7 28.2 28.7 28.5 29.0 29.6 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 126 127 130 139 146 153 149 155 164 166 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 132 135 139 152 157 163 153 153 154 149 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 700-500 MB RH 65 64 58 57 56 52 48 51 52 55 61 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 99 91 85 80 60 27 -13 -38 -66 -51 -69 -49 200 MB DIV 13 16 21 37 39 39 13 6 8 5 15 20 28 700-850 TADV 6 0 -2 -4 5 23 20 21 -6 7 -5 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1871 1706 1556 1421 1304 1131 759 224 155 192 185 41 -51 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.3 16.9 18.5 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.8 25.2 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 39.2 41.5 44.1 46.8 52.6 58.5 64.4 69.8 74.5 77.8 80.0 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 24 26 27 30 29 28 25 20 14 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 3 5 7 37 24 34 33 47 47 68 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 31. 36. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. -1. -7. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 32. 34. 38. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.4 37.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 7.2% Bayesian: 999.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 30 37 44 49 52 52 54 58 43 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 35 42 47 50 50 52 56 41 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 30 37 42 45 45 47 51 36 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT