* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 43 48 49 50 51 53 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 43 48 49 50 51 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 32 32 31 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 8 11 22 29 37 33 29 29 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 1 3 -1 0 0 4 1 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 99 102 35 32 16 316 314 291 300 285 292 294 338 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 27.2 27.9 28.2 28.7 28.6 29.2 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 125 126 133 142 145 152 149 157 164 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 128 132 134 144 154 155 156 147 149 149 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 59 56 55 52 49 52 51 54 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 100 97 92 86 66 41 -11 -47 -81 -85 -100 -76 200 MB DIV 0 11 25 22 39 53 50 13 8 6 27 14 6 700-850 TADV 4 9 0 0 -1 15 10 30 2 5 0 -3 3 LAND (KM) 1844 1933 1769 1608 1479 1292 1064 574 333 335 379 332 198 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 16.1 18.1 19.9 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 36.2 38.3 40.6 43.1 48.7 54.6 60.5 65.9 70.6 74.3 76.9 78.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 22 24 26 29 30 29 24 21 16 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 11 3 4 9 19 32 33 53 26 59 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. -1. -6. -11. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 23. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 34.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 102.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 2.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 36 43 48 49 50 51 53 56 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 34 41 46 47 48 49 51 54 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 36 41 42 43 44 46 49 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT