* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 47 41 31 25 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 47 41 31 25 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 25 28 35 41 43 40 35 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 3 5 13 46 68 58 30 25 52 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 -5 -12 -15 -2 0 4 -5 -9 SHEAR DIR 290 276 285 300 245 334 338 340 319 320 322 318 291 SST (C) 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.8 22.2 21.8 20.6 19.1 18.4 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 87 84 83 83 82 80 83 83 86 82 77 75 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 74 73 72 72 69 72 71 76 74 70 69 70 200 MB T (C) -60.0 -60.0 -60.4 -60.8 -61.1 -60.9 -60.0 -59.3 -58.5 -57.3 -59.4 -60.7 -61.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 59 57 52 49 49 48 46 41 44 39 31 21 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 12 9 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 42 43 50 41 18 -35 8 -18 -64 -141 -175 200 MB DIV 14 6 -1 4 8 -42 -56 -38 -1 -23 -74 -31 68 700-850 TADV 4 4 9 -2 -2 0 2 0 -7 22 15 0 14 LAND (KM) 1714 1705 1639 1573 1509 1440 1449 1444 1412 1197 1056 897 794 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 36.1 36.5 36.7 36.8 36.8 36.2 35.5 36.3 38.5 40.4 42.1 45.4 LONG(DEG W) 28.9 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.2 25.4 25.3 25.4 24.9 23.0 21.4 20.0 18.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 6 5 2 4 1 10 13 11 12 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 1. -11. -19. -25. -34. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. 28. 29. 30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -11. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 22. 16. 6. 0. -3. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.3 28.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 44 47 41 31 25 22 16 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 41 44 38 28 22 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 35 38 32 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT