* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 50 55 59 65 67 60 45 29 17 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 50 55 59 65 67 60 45 29 17 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 41 43 49 54 58 61 60 52 41 31 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 23 19 16 11 10 17 51 83 85 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -4 -5 -2 -4 -13 -19 -18 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 268 270 283 304 311 305 269 337 1 358 350 347 SST (C) 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.5 22.7 22.0 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 99 99 97 91 85 84 88 91 93 94 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 85 89 90 88 81 75 73 77 79 82 82 84 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -58.4 -58.7 -58.9 -59.3 -59.8 -60.2 -60.8 -60.6 -59.3 -58.6 -58.0 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 46 44 46 50 56 61 55 47 42 40 37 39 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 15 14 14 13 14 14 11 7 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 106 120 111 75 52 36 43 17 8 -25 -52 -81 -105 200 MB DIV 30 51 38 26 33 22 5 -12 -45 -87 -86 -53 -64 700-850 TADV 9 9 2 1 5 20 16 1 -1 -3 -3 1 4 LAND (KM) 1925 1903 1800 1705 1628 1588 1509 1411 1402 1330 1280 1235 1141 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.1 30.3 31.1 32.3 34.9 36.5 36.6 35.3 33.7 32.0 30.5 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 33.7 32.6 31.1 29.6 27.6 26.1 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.7 26.0 25.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 12 16 17 13 7 4 7 9 9 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -5. -18. -32. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 24. 30. 32. 25. 10. -6. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.0 34.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 184.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 47 50 55 59 65 67 60 45 29 17 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 46 51 55 61 63 56 41 25 DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 44 48 54 56 49 34 18 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 43 45 38 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT