* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 52 60 62 62 63 63 62 60 51 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 52 60 62 62 63 63 62 60 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 52 54 56 59 60 60 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 32 29 27 28 29 20 21 19 23 27 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 -11 SHEAR DIR 253 250 242 236 243 254 275 302 305 295 300 344 16 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.6 25.0 24.7 24.0 23.2 22.6 22.3 22.5 23.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 98 99 99 101 105 105 101 94 88 85 88 92 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 86 86 88 92 96 93 84 77 74 77 82 88 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.1 -57.0 -57.6 -57.6 -57.8 -58.8 -59.9 -60.6 -61.2 -61.0 -60.1 -58.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 45 44 40 37 36 45 54 65 63 57 52 49 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 9 11 12 13 13 11 10 10 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 51 42 56 73 90 109 58 35 27 26 12 -5 -33 200 MB DIV -27 -23 -17 -12 4 55 33 10 1 -4 -39 -82 -53 700-850 TADV 1 7 9 5 3 10 7 11 9 8 4 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1978 2054 2113 2137 2079 1809 1578 1530 1554 1514 1411 1307 1201 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.4 28.5 28.0 30.2 33.3 35.2 35.9 35.2 33.2 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.3 36.1 36.6 36.3 33.6 30.1 27.9 27.0 26.0 25.2 25.2 25.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 16 20 14 7 4 7 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. 27. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 30. 32. 32. 33. 33. 32. 30. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.2 34.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 195.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/12/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 46 52 60 62 62 63 63 62 60 51 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 55 57 57 58 58 57 55 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 46 48 48 49 49 48 46 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 34 36 36 37 37 36 34 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT