* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 32 41 49 55 59 67 74 78 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 32 41 49 55 59 67 74 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 37 39 42 46 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 11 7 6 3 12 9 5 8 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 1 2 0 0 0 1 -3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 64 53 51 57 32 319 300 250 267 259 360 297 313 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 150 157 158 162 160 158 156 158 158 162 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 160 164 172 173 175 171 165 157 157 151 156 159 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 70 73 72 69 67 60 56 57 62 62 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 60 54 43 30 10 -3 -2 0 1 5 13 200 MB DIV 3 9 11 19 51 98 71 20 13 40 58 47 93 700-850 TADV -11 -16 -17 -16 -12 -8 0 0 -6 -3 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1852 1670 1484 1301 1163 958 856 836 561 368 307 347 444 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 10.0 11.1 12.4 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 36.8 38.7 40.7 42.5 46.3 50.1 53.6 56.7 58.9 60.4 61.4 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 19 19 20 19 17 13 10 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 13 17 19 39 28 51 62 76 69 70 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 10. 19. 25. 31. 36. 41. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 21. 29. 35. 39. 47. 54. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 34.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 53.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 21.5% 10.2% 2.6% 1.1% 8.9% 36.6% 72.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 0.8% 7.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 12.3% 24.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 32 41 49 55 59 67 74 78 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 31 40 48 54 58 66 73 77 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 36 44 50 54 62 69 73 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT