* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 07/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 37 37 41 46 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 37 37 41 46 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 27 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 10 4 16 18 25 28 29 15 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 32 36 46 351 324 291 288 290 316 348 346 34 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 128 128 131 134 134 133 132 133 136 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 127 128 132 133 130 127 123 122 125 131 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 73 74 70 69 66 61 56 56 53 52 51 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 28 18 11 7 0 -18 -42 -56 -61 -56 -55 -56 200 MB DIV 15 13 4 7 4 22 13 5 -16 -28 -27 -42 -22 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -2 3 1 7 15 9 6 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1443 1399 1352 1320 1293 1263 1311 1221 1156 1007 842 642 411 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.7 15.3 16.9 18.2 19.1 19.5 19.6 19.4 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.3 41.1 42.2 43.4 44.7 47.6 50.2 52.6 54.5 56.2 57.8 59.7 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 13 14 16 16 13 12 9 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 8 25 17 30 18 17 15 25 40 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 16. 21. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 40.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 07/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 9.2% 7.3% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.0% 4.7% 1.4% 1.2% 2.0% 8.0% 21.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% Consensus: 1.2% 6.7% 4.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.7% 5.8% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 07/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 07/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 37 37 41 46 52 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 30 32 34 35 35 39 44 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 29 31 32 32 36 41 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 23 24 24 28 33 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT