* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 50 60 69 75 81 82 82 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 50 60 69 75 81 82 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 41 48 55 61 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 7 9 8 4 6 2 1 3 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 1 -4 -5 -5 0 6 -1 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 83 84 105 105 113 131 157 184 183 121 268 248 248 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 133 135 134 132 133 128 123 123 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 129 130 132 131 128 129 121 112 112 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 74 72 66 59 54 52 53 58 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 98 98 95 101 114 105 111 120 109 102 88 63 34 200 MB DIV 45 63 60 56 64 43 38 36 44 54 54 56 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 3 4 0 4 12 LAND (KM) 259 353 403 490 602 861 1165 1453 1729 1868 1900 1865 1866 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.8 17.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 19.2 20.2 21.0 22.0 23.1 25.5 28.3 31.0 33.6 34.9 35.2 34.8 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 13 10 4 3 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 6 6 8 18 16 12 16 22 24 12 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 30. 40. 49. 55. 61. 62. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 19.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/17/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 32 40 50 60 69 75 81 82 82 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 29 37 47 57 66 72 78 79 79 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 41 51 60 66 72 73 73 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT