* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 56 61 64 66 71 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 56 61 64 66 71 75 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 38 42 43 43 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 12 10 9 5 12 17 15 9 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -4 -6 0 0 4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 75 66 80 103 101 131 191 231 230 240 238 221 196 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 132 133 132 128 122 122 125 126 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 128 128 131 129 125 118 118 120 120 117 117 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 78 76 70 61 54 49 43 41 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 98 96 94 98 101 102 95 102 99 112 123 118 110 200 MB DIV 21 42 65 55 56 55 28 46 36 25 2 0 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 7 2 4 1 LAND (KM) 168 260 324 365 403 617 920 1244 1575 1933 2072 1881 1775 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.8 15.6 17.0 18.3 18.8 18.5 17.2 16.3 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 18.3 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.1 23.2 25.8 28.6 31.9 35.3 37.8 39.4 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 14 14 15 17 15 11 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 11 12 10 6 11 6 2 5 7 13 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 36. 41. 44. 46. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 18.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 56 61 64 66 71 75 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 28 36 44 53 58 61 63 68 72 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 30 38 47 52 55 57 62 66 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT