* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 30 29 28 27 28 31 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 30 29 28 27 28 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 30 30 28 25 22 19 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 5 9 19 23 24 29 31 33 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 0 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 104 152 192 224 237 240 227 217 214 204 205 218 209 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.5 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 129 127 122 117 118 120 124 126 129 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 130 129 128 123 118 118 120 123 124 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 68 67 62 57 53 49 46 44 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 60 77 84 87 95 110 115 97 77 67 48 43 200 MB DIV -4 -9 8 19 35 14 24 26 5 9 9 5 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -9 -14 -14 -6 -6 -2 -7 0 -2 3 4 LAND (KM) 459 523 592 674 806 1171 1599 2020 1694 1435 1245 1134 1086 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 20.9 21.6 22.4 23.5 24.9 28.4 32.4 36.4 40.1 43.5 46.5 49.5 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 14 16 19 19 19 17 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 3 1 2 0 2 2 4 10 18 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 20.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 31 31 30 29 28 27 28 31 33 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 28 27 26 25 24 25 28 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 22 21 20 19 20 23 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT