* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 55 68 75 66 47 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 55 68 75 66 47 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 46 53 54 47 43 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 13 17 16 17 19 19 19 16 28 33 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -1 0 -2 0 0 5 0 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 280 256 257 281 305 293 294 278 280 256 236 269 294 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.8 22.0 18.7 13.5 13.0 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 109 109 109 109 106 100 92 81 75 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 94 91 90 91 93 94 91 84 76 73 73 71 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.3 -56.9 -56.3 -56.0 -55.7 -55.0 -55.0 -56.2 -58.2 -60.9 -62.4 -63.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 53 53 55 60 57 47 37 33 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 12 19 22 14 3 14 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 23 14 30 22 11 14 49 5 -99 -203 -188 200 MB DIV 33 43 24 11 10 -3 14 28 56 28 35 -3 -20 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 0 6 12 27 54 53 29 8 12 LAND (KM) 1853 1880 1859 1848 1837 1777 1592 1281 993 991 1388 851 173 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.8 32.6 35.8 39.8 44.0 48.6 51.7 50.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 51.9 51.8 51.8 51.7 50.9 49.8 48.1 45.3 41.0 34.1 22.7 11.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 1 3 7 14 21 25 29 37 40 33 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -5. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 12. 16. 5. -11. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 30. 43. 50. 41. 22. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.2 51.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.64 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 139.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 94.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 7.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 6.4% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 55 68 75 66 47 57 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 44 52 65 72 63 44 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 38 46 59 66 57 38 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 37 50 57 48 29 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT