* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 54 58 60 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 54 58 60 61 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 44 48 50 50 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 9 7 13 10 15 18 17 14 16 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -5 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 241 262 281 223 237 298 287 312 291 317 314 317 264 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.1 22.3 20.1 16.2 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 119 115 111 109 108 109 107 102 92 84 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 103 98 93 90 90 92 94 91 84 78 73 72 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -58.1 -58.2 -57.8 -57.5 -56.4 -56.1 -55.6 -55.1 -55.2 -57.3 -60.8 -62.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 52 51 51 50 54 62 67 53 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 20 19 15 27 13 19 13 27 26 -28 -117 200 MB DIV 40 48 32 29 31 14 -16 6 7 46 36 23 15 700-850 TADV 5 4 1 2 0 0 3 1 24 40 62 10 17 LAND (KM) 1797 1883 1929 1875 1865 1843 1804 1671 1390 1088 988 1190 1238 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.7 29.4 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.6 31.9 34.8 38.6 42.6 46.7 51.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 51.1 51.1 51.0 50.9 50.9 50.4 49.6 48.0 45.6 42.0 37.1 28.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 6 3 1 1 5 12 19 23 25 31 39 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 18. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.7 51.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.41 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 90.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.9% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 54 58 60 61 61 61 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 42 46 50 54 56 57 57 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 35 39 43 47 49 50 50 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 29 33 37 39 40 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT