* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 50 55 57 59 60 59 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 50 55 57 59 60 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 41 47 51 54 54 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 16 13 14 12 7 10 12 17 19 18 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 1 6 SHEAR DIR 280 278 259 269 283 236 302 282 309 289 309 317 331 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.2 22.6 20.5 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 126 126 124 118 116 112 109 102 94 86 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 109 108 106 101 98 96 96 92 86 80 73 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.6 -57.4 -57.5 -57.6 -57.7 -57.0 -56.8 -56.1 -55.8 -56.2 -58.5 -61.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 51 50 49 47 45 50 55 64 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 14 2 9 15 12 8 16 3 -7 -39 -65 200 MB DIV 23 39 32 29 30 17 9 -9 4 11 43 21 11 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 4 2 3 0 5 6 24 44 61 64 LAND (KM) 1553 1615 1682 1748 1802 1938 2015 1933 1767 1499 1216 1085 1256 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.7 26.3 26.7 27.2 28.1 28.7 29.6 31.2 34.0 37.6 41.7 46.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 52.2 51.8 51.3 51.0 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 47.1 44.9 41.4 36.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 6 12 18 23 28 33 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 12 10 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 25. 30. 32. 34. 35. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.0 52.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.51 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.51 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 135.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.2% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/04/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 35 39 45 50 55 57 59 60 59 56 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 41 46 51 53 55 56 55 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 39 44 46 48 49 48 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 30 35 37 39 40 39 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT