* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/04/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 51 54 56 57 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 51 54 56 57 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 36 42 48 52 53 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 19 16 18 4 10 5 17 14 20 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 280 281 282 266 272 277 275 288 304 299 304 317 327 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.8 24.9 23.6 21.5 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 128 126 124 118 115 111 106 99 89 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 112 110 108 101 99 97 95 90 83 76 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.5 -56.3 -57.1 -57.3 -57.7 -57.5 -57.5 -56.6 -56.4 -55.8 -57.6 -60.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 51 52 50 47 46 46 51 60 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 17 9 -3 9 11 11 11 17 -5 -46 -47 200 MB DIV 10 18 35 26 25 30 -3 14 -20 19 14 41 12 700-850 TADV 5 5 6 6 5 3 3 3 7 19 32 62 73 LAND (KM) 1447 1492 1561 1645 1719 1876 2005 2053 1917 1683 1380 1151 1141 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.8 26.8 27.6 28.6 29.9 32.2 35.6 39.5 44.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 52.8 52.3 51.7 51.1 49.9 48.9 48.4 48.1 47.4 45.7 42.9 38.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 5 6 9 15 21 25 29 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 16 16 20 7 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 53.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.53 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.1% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.8% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/04/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 51 54 56 57 56 53 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 38 42 47 50 52 53 52 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 36 41 44 46 47 46 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 32 35 37 38 37 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT