* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 11/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 39 44 49 54 56 58 57 55 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 39 44 49 54 56 58 57 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 38 43 46 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 17 15 13 10 8 9 17 20 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -5 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 288 286 286 283 268 272 230 283 270 293 275 297 309 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.4 23.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 128 127 123 117 114 111 107 102 96 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 113 113 110 106 100 96 95 93 90 85 80 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.1 -55.8 -56.7 -57.3 -57.8 -57.9 -56.8 -56.3 -55.9 -55.8 -56.1 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 53 52 51 48 46 43 44 47 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 8 7 4 0 0 11 7 9 13 3 -12 -57 200 MB DIV 20 12 13 31 24 35 27 19 -8 -3 5 26 6 700-850 TADV 5 6 4 6 4 3 2 0 1 0 11 14 19 LAND (KM) 1439 1501 1571 1660 1735 1870 1997 1997 1904 1758 1550 1355 1210 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.3 27.5 28.4 29.0 29.9 31.3 33.5 36.0 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 52.7 52.3 51.7 51.2 50.4 49.5 49.1 48.8 48.4 47.2 45.3 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 6 10 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 17 16 18 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 20. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 24. 29. 34. 36. 38. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.5 53.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.81 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 11/04/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 11/04/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 30 33 39 44 49 54 56 58 57 55 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 29 35 40 45 50 52 54 53 51 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 23 29 34 39 44 46 48 47 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT