* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 09/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 39 42 42 44 46 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 26 26 27 27 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 24 24 19 19 9 4 4 11 15 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 287 282 268 267 270 238 262 204 89 102 103 106 102 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 167 167 169 169 167 165 163 158 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 148 148 150 155 154 151 148 150 150 149 152 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 6 10 5 9 6 11 8 13 9 700-500 MB RH 84 83 79 78 77 75 77 75 75 71 73 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -6 -5 0 -3 13 0 -10 -5 11 10 36 200 MB DIV 49 44 59 53 37 52 43 28 20 14 17 18 33 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 0 0 2 3 3 1 0 3 6 8 LAND (KM) 48 73 88 83 73 15 -58 -174 -279 -218 -100 107 309 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.3 22.4 22.3 22.2 21.7 20.9 20.3 20.0 19.6 18.9 18.0 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.1 97.0 96.9 96.9 97.1 97.8 98.7 99.7 100.8 102.4 104.5 106.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 2 4 5 5 4 7 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 43 44 43 17 42 29 0 0 55 42 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 19. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.0 97.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 09/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.27 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.76 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.87 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 9.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.93 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 16.7% 12.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 25.9% 15.8% 4.0% 1.7% 18.5% 24.5% 48.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 3.1% Consensus: 3.9% 14.6% 9.6% 3.7% 0.6% 6.2% 13.0% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 09/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 09/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 31 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 27 25 25 25 25 29 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 23 21 21 21 21 25 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT