* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 09/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 37 38 41 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 22 25 26 27 27 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 25 20 22 23 16 14 6 6 12 16 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 -4 -3 -6 -2 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 280 287 277 262 264 236 239 195 153 135 115 120 119 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 167 167 167 168 169 170 164 161 158 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 152 150 150 150 153 157 155 150 148 148 147 150 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 8 9 7 7 7 8 8 12 11 700-500 MB RH 82 84 82 79 77 76 75 76 76 72 70 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 7 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -5 0 2 1 6 0 9 1 -6 2 -1 32 200 MB DIV 51 44 46 42 45 46 46 25 19 23 17 7 32 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 -2 -1 2 3 4 1 1 3 5 11 LAND (KM) 23 34 53 73 73 30 -31 -161 -298 -211 -122 54 278 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.2 21.8 20.9 20.2 19.8 19.7 19.3 18.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.3 97.3 97.1 96.9 97.0 97.5 98.5 99.8 101.1 102.8 104.8 107.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 3 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 33 41 43 30 45 24 0 0 55 41 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 12. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.7 97.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 09/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 7.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.93 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.1% 10.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 12.8% 7.6% 2.2% 2.0% 6.5% 11.4% 28.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 2.6% 9.0% 6.0% 2.8% 0.7% 2.2% 7.5% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 09/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 09/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 31 34 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 27 26 26 26 26 30 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 23 22 22 22 22 26 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 16 15 15 15 15 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT