* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 09/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 38 39 40 40 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 38 30 28 27 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 26 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 25 23 28 21 20 11 8 9 15 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 -4 -5 -4 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 272 276 279 268 254 255 229 237 174 136 108 111 110 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 168 166 167 169 170 170 167 162 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 154 152 145 150 156 157 157 155 152 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 10 7 10 6 9 6 10 7 12 700-500 MB RH 78 79 81 79 75 73 72 72 72 74 70 71 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -28 -11 -12 -6 8 0 9 1 8 15 23 6 200 MB DIV 67 53 37 37 49 41 61 34 38 22 12 16 25 700-850 TADV 4 2 4 1 -2 0 4 2 4 1 1 6 6 LAND (KM) 103 76 102 122 133 133 91 24 -110 -279 -122 22 214 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.1 21.1 20.3 19.4 18.6 17.8 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.6 96.7 96.6 96.5 96.5 96.5 97.0 98.0 99.3 100.9 102.8 104.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 46 48 55 61 56 48 31 39 0 57 49 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.7 96.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 09/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.17 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.89 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 11.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.5% 10.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 4.9% 5.5% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 6.6% 4.5% 2.3% 0.0% 1.6% 1.8% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 09/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 09/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 38 30 28 27 31 34 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 33 36 28 26 25 29 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 29 32 24 22 21 25 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 22 25 17 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT