* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952017 07/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 63 66 66 67 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 63 66 66 67 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 51 53 51 48 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 3 3 5 11 15 18 23 31 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 100 82 70 58 24 312 266 241 224 250 263 270 270 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 143 142 142 141 143 142 144 143 140 143 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 145 144 144 144 149 147 150 148 145 146 154 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 67 64 58 57 52 54 53 53 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 43 32 16 12 19 27 25 28 39 14 -15 200 MB DIV 45 16 20 17 12 6 50 45 32 24 15 31 29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -8 3 6 4 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 719 671 645 625 628 473 208 277 330 266 311 301 62 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.4 51.6 52.8 54.1 56.8 60.0 63.3 67.0 71.0 75.1 79.2 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 20 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 21 28 42 45 47 32 46 34 69 58 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 38. 41. 41. 42. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 49.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.90 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 84.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.7% 12.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 36.9% 21.4% 10.9% 6.0% 22.4% 24.4% 41.2% Bayesian: 2.9% 15.5% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 3.8% 1.4% 2.9% Consensus: 5.0% 23.1% 12.6% 6.3% 2.1% 8.8% 14.0% 14.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952017 INVEST 07/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952017 INVEST 07/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 47 55 63 66 66 67 66 65 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 44 52 60 63 63 64 63 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 38 46 54 57 57 58 57 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 36 44 47 47 48 47 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT