* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 09/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 37 38 37 38 41 43 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 37 38 37 38 41 43 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 30 29 30 32 35 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 19 24 29 23 20 14 12 11 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -3 2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 261 247 245 251 251 264 285 285 303 320 320 268 279 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 121 117 116 119 124 127 127 130 131 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 120 116 112 111 114 119 121 120 121 121 123 126 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 69 69 63 58 53 50 54 57 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -2 4 2 -1 19 42 40 84 78 80 58 51 50 200 MB DIV 25 46 58 55 42 22 0 4 16 -9 -2 5 -4 700-850 TADV 2 2 6 8 7 -4 -5 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 733 861 1004 1118 1249 1573 1932 2141 1884 1721 1605 1554 1521 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.2 19.7 18.5 17.1 16.0 15.2 15.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.5 28.9 32.1 35.5 38.3 40.3 41.3 42.0 42.9 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 14 9 6 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 2 1 9 3 1 9 18 11 12 21 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 24.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 09/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 139.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 09/14/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 36 37 38 37 38 41 43 46 47 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 34 35 34 35 38 40 43 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 31 30 31 34 36 39 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 22 23 26 28 31 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT