* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952016 09/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 34 34 35 37 41 44 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 34 34 35 37 41 44 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 25 24 23 23 25 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 18 18 24 22 17 12 13 12 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 3 3 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 284 272 251 252 256 256 262 283 296 311 319 317 303 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 126 124 121 119 123 123 124 126 129 131 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 121 117 115 112 116 115 116 118 122 124 129 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 71 71 70 66 60 59 55 59 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 9 13 18 41 48 46 78 80 85 75 75 200 MB DIV 35 31 58 69 63 40 -8 -7 -1 17 -2 5 -5 700-850 TADV -4 1 0 0 0 1 -10 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 673 824 956 1083 1204 1444 1702 1946 2150 1986 1800 1639 1493 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.7 18.7 18.4 18.0 17.4 16.6 16.2 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 25.0 26.1 27.2 28.3 30.6 33.1 35.4 37.4 39.2 40.9 42.8 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 10 10 9 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 7 4 3 3 5 7 14 14 6 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 10. 12. 16. 19. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 23.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST 09/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST 09/14/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 34 34 34 35 37 41 44 49 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 32 32 32 33 35 39 42 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 27 27 28 30 34 37 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 20 20 21 23 27 30 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT