* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 31 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 31 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 31 39 42 55 58 73 84 79 49 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 5 3 1 -2 -9 2 14 7 SHEAR DIR 223 257 226 217 236 234 240 265 272 265 250 242 219 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.2 22.2 10.1 13.3 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 122 122 123 121 115 110 109 93 72 71 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 110 108 108 108 107 99 94 95 85 71 69 62 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -56.6 -57.4 -58.9 -59.2 -59.7 -55.7 -50.8 -47.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 57 53 52 49 55 57 58 66 72 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 27 37 56 33 -25 -57 -67 -70 -7 102 248 311 200 MB DIV 20 3 16 55 27 40 44 30 51 102 129 88 23 700-850 TADV 13 21 1 -4 3 3 1 16 33 65 43 16 12 LAND (KM) 822 883 849 865 911 1050 1065 1031 896 603 418 853 850 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.5 29.5 30.4 31.2 33.0 34.4 35.5 37.6 41.3 45.6 51.0 53.4 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.8 70.0 68.8 67.5 64.9 61.6 59.4 57.6 54.5 47.9 41.7 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 14 13 16 13 10 17 26 37 25 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 9 4 4 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 16 CX,CY: -2/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 810 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. -0. -12. -25. -42. -59. -72. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 6. 2. -6. -15. -28. -38. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.2 71.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.79 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.52 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.2% 8.3% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 33 31 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 32 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT