* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 46 52 55 55 51 47 45 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 46 52 55 55 51 47 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 32 37 44 50 54 55 52 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 24 25 22 18 13 14 28 28 25 19 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -6 -8 -7 -7 -7 -4 -4 -5 0 -8 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 272 278 281 285 297 336 6 15 22 23 27 225 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 119 119 119 120 118 117 116 118 116 115 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 98 98 98 101 99 97 96 98 98 97 96 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -58.1 -57.9 -57.7 -58.1 -58.0 -58.0 -57.8 -57.1 -56.8 -56.9 -56.7 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 53 54 53 56 55 53 51 51 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 14 15 16 15 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 17 -2 -8 -11 -10 -4 -4 -17 -12 -16 -8 -6 200 MB DIV -9 11 7 -5 13 -5 -21 -20 -15 -51 -31 2 10 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 2090 2070 2051 2058 2066 2142 2195 2129 2117 2077 1987 1882 1796 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 6 5 2 1 3 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 11 10 9 9 5 1 1 1 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 25. 25. 21. 17. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.9 40.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 171.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 99.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 8.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.4% 2.6% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 40 46 52 55 55 51 47 45 47 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 50 53 53 49 45 43 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 44 47 47 43 39 37 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 35 38 38 34 30 28 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT