* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 47 49 52 55 52 48 44 42 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 47 49 52 55 52 48 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 43 47 52 56 59 58 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 25 26 29 29 28 23 9 12 25 23 21 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -8 -8 -8 -7 -7 -3 -6 -3 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 283 282 278 288 292 295 298 331 10 40 30 45 75 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 120 120 119 119 118 118 119 120 120 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 99 100 99 99 99 97 98 100 101 101 98 100 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -58.5 -58.3 -58.1 -58.0 -58.2 -57.6 -57.3 -56.9 -56.8 -56.6 -56.9 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 55 54 51 52 53 53 53 49 48 47 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 12 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 38 18 -9 -14 -19 -12 -11 -14 -34 -27 -32 -27 200 MB DIV -11 0 19 6 -9 -17 -19 -26 -7 -43 -31 -13 11 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -4 LAND (KM) 2124 2115 2085 2070 2066 2092 2168 2216 2234 2223 2189 2145 2076 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.4 31.0 30.3 29.5 28.7 28.5 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 40.1 40.1 39.9 39.6 39.3 38.4 37.5 37.3 37.3 37.5 37.4 37.0 36.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 10 10 9 8 10 1 2 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 20. 17. 13. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.5 40.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 6.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/09/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 44 47 49 52 55 52 48 44 42 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 44 46 49 52 49 45 41 39 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 39 41 44 47 44 40 36 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 32 35 38 35 31 27 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT