* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 46 47 48 51 49 46 41 38 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 46 47 48 51 49 46 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 41 46 50 55 58 57 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 25 27 30 26 23 14 11 26 29 28 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -9 -8 -5 -7 -6 -4 -3 -6 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 277 284 283 280 286 297 298 328 19 33 29 31 37 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 121 120 121 118 118 119 121 121 119 118 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 101 100 100 97 97 98 101 102 100 100 100 200 MB T (C) -58.8 -58.6 -58.6 -58.3 -58.1 -58.3 -58.1 -57.5 -57.1 -56.8 -56.7 -56.9 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 51 56 54 52 54 51 54 53 51 49 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 38 18 -9 -16 -17 -13 -14 -23 -14 -10 -4 200 MB DIV -3 -2 -6 21 8 2 -24 -25 -8 -31 -29 -21 19 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2134 2139 2115 2090 2075 2058 2104 2176 2257 2226 2141 2066 1990 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.3 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.9 31.8 31.2 30.4 29.3 28.7 28.7 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.1 40.2 40.1 39.8 39.5 38.7 38.0 37.7 37.6 37.6 36.9 36.1 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 10 7 7 10 1 2 3 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 16. 14. 11. 6. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.4 40.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.33 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 9.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/08/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 44 46 47 48 51 49 46 41 38 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 43 44 45 48 46 43 38 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 38 39 40 43 41 38 33 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 30 31 34 32 29 24 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT