* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 47 49 49 49 48 48 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 47 49 49 49 48 48 46 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 47 50 53 55 57 57 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 28 27 23 23 29 25 24 19 18 25 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -6 -8 -8 -6 -8 -1 -3 -8 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 276 282 291 292 281 294 299 314 340 354 28 22 37 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 120 120 120 117 118 120 122 123 123 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 99 99 99 95 96 100 103 105 104 103 103 200 MB T (C) -59.2 -58.9 -58.8 -58.7 -58.4 -58.0 -58.3 -57.4 -57.1 -56.4 -56.4 -56.3 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 48 51 55 54 52 51 52 52 52 50 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 49 34 21 -7 -18 -13 -10 -23 -13 -21 -10 200 MB DIV 10 5 2 -11 6 -22 -2 -24 -22 -15 -38 -23 -2 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 0 -2 0 0 2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2124 2138 2129 2104 2060 2017 2042 2109 2201 2314 2323 2259 2169 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.5 30.6 30.9 31.3 31.8 31.7 31.1 30.2 29.0 28.0 27.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.7 39.8 39.8 39.7 39.8 39.7 39.4 39.2 39.1 39.2 39.0 38.5 37.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 3 4 1 2 4 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 1 1 11 6 9 1 1 4 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -14. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.7 39.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.32 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 92.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 45 47 49 49 49 48 48 46 43 40 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 45 45 45 44 44 42 39 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 39 39 39 38 38 36 33 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 29 29 28 28 26 23 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT