* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 47 46 48 49 46 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 47 46 48 49 46 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 47 50 53 53 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 25 26 22 29 28 27 15 14 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -6 -8 -6 -8 -7 -7 -7 -5 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 279 279 288 286 285 295 299 320 360 14 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 120 120 120 120 118 119 120 120 119 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 98 99 98 98 95 98 99 99 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.2 -59.3 -59.0 -58.8 -58.6 -58.1 -58.3 -57.8 -57.5 -56.7 -56.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 51 55 54 53 49 51 48 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 12 11 11 11 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 56 55 46 39 5 -14 -16 -11 -17 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 16 4 -6 -25 8 -11 -11 -24 -8 -30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2104 2104 2104 2088 2071 2047 2022 2046 2119 2172 2182 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 1 1 15 11 10 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 17. 16. 18. 19. 16. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.0 39.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 80.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 46 47 46 48 49 46 46 47 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 43 42 44 45 42 42 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 37 36 38 39 36 36 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 28 27 29 30 27 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT