* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 49 48 46 45 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 49 48 46 45 44 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 49 51 52 52 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 17 22 25 20 31 31 26 21 19 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -6 -9 -4 -9 -7 -5 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 282 293 287 287 293 287 289 300 313 350 10 38 44 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 120 120 119 118 120 122 126 126 126 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 97 99 100 99 97 98 103 108 108 108 106 200 MB T (C) -59.1 -59.3 -59.4 -59.3 -59.1 -58.6 -57.9 -57.9 -57.2 -57.1 -56.6 -56.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 51 52 53 49 48 49 51 51 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 49 67 66 51 27 -3 -16 -24 -31 -16 -12 -13 200 MB DIV 32 22 17 10 0 -9 -32 1 -39 -21 -12 -46 -36 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2075 2109 2143 2133 2089 1998 1946 1961 2060 2207 2371 2456 2478 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 30.9 30.6 30.7 31.1 31.7 31.9 31.6 30.7 29.4 27.9 26.8 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 39.6 39.5 39.5 39.6 40.3 41.0 41.3 41.1 40.7 40.4 40.6 40.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 1 3 4 4 3 3 6 8 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 1 1 13 10 7 11 2 4 3 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.3 39.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.40 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 77.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 4.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.8% 3.5% 0.3% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 47 49 48 46 45 44 40 37 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 43 45 44 42 41 40 36 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 37 39 38 36 35 34 30 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 29 28 26 25 24 20 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT