* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 51 53 54 55 56 53 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 51 53 54 55 56 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 52 56 60 62 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 17 18 23 22 24 24 20 9 11 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -4 -5 -6 -7 -7 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 268 282 295 288 286 299 285 298 303 327 23 32 44 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 122 120 122 120 118 119 123 124 124 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 102 99 102 101 98 99 104 106 106 103 103 200 MB T (C) -59.0 -59.0 -59.1 -59.3 -59.4 -59.1 -58.4 -57.8 -57.3 -57.0 -56.7 -56.5 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 50 52 55 51 49 50 54 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 12 12 11 11 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 59 72 66 36 4 4 2 2 -4 -17 -30 200 MB DIV 7 37 19 15 7 -15 6 -8 4 -6 -6 -34 -20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 2056 2099 2163 2196 2177 2085 1964 1945 2048 2209 2375 2304 2253 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 30.9 30.3 30.1 30.4 31.4 32.3 32.1 31.0 29.6 28.2 27.6 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 39.8 39.7 39.4 39.2 39.1 39.8 40.6 40.7 40.2 39.6 38.9 38.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 2 4 6 4 4 7 7 6 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 1 2 2 2 9 6 10 1 4 4 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 39.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 163.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 89.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.6% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/07/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 44 49 51 53 54 55 56 53 49 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 45 47 49 50 51 52 49 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 41 43 44 45 46 43 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 31 33 34 35 36 33 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT