* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 54 56 57 56 55 54 53 49 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 54 56 57 56 55 54 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 55 57 58 58 58 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 18 19 19 28 22 28 27 22 19 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -4 -3 -7 -5 -6 -5 -6 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 260 275 290 288 295 293 296 309 316 10 8 30 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 124 124 123 123 120 117 119 122 126 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 103 106 106 104 105 101 97 98 103 110 112 112 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -58.9 -58.9 -58.9 -59.1 -59.0 -59.1 -58.3 -57.8 -56.9 -56.8 -56.6 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 46 42 41 44 47 54 53 48 48 49 48 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 10 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 44 58 77 51 6 -7 -9 -11 -16 -2 -6 200 MB DIV 29 20 37 15 13 -11 0 -21 0 -26 -5 -4 -53 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1979 1988 2058 2151 2218 2201 2072 1965 1935 2015 2173 2386 2485 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 31.8 30.9 30.0 29.6 30.3 31.7 32.4 32.2 31.1 29.4 27.4 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 40.3 40.7 40.6 40.0 38.9 38.8 39.6 40.6 41.2 41.5 41.3 41.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 7 5 7 6 4 5 7 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 1 4 4 2 9 5 10 15 4 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 860 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -0. -5. -8. -12. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 26. 25. 24. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.3 39.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.41 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 94.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 49 54 56 57 56 55 54 53 49 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 44 49 51 52 51 50 49 48 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 41 43 44 43 42 41 40 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 30 32 33 32 31 30 29 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT