* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 10/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 52 59 62 63 60 57 55 53 49 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 52 59 62 63 60 57 55 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 39 44 48 55 60 61 60 58 57 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 17 17 27 29 28 30 25 26 21 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -8 -6 -5 -8 -6 -7 -3 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 233 249 262 271 285 285 296 287 300 315 350 1 23 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 117 122 124 122 122 120 117 119 123 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 95 99 104 106 101 102 100 96 98 104 108 111 200 MB T (C) -58.8 -59.0 -59.1 -59.2 -59.1 -58.9 -58.8 -58.6 -58.2 -57.4 -57.0 -56.7 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 43 44 47 55 52 52 52 52 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 19 19 38 47 76 45 -5 -13 -15 -10 -6 -1 200 MB DIV 6 29 9 36 20 0 -14 -6 -13 -21 -20 -21 -45 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1994 1969 1956 1974 2038 2153 2158 2094 2051 2061 2129 2244 2385 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.8 32.6 32.0 31.1 29.9 30.2 31.1 31.6 31.5 30.6 29.2 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 38.8 39.4 40.2 40.7 40.8 40.0 39.5 39.4 39.4 39.8 40.3 40.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 7 9 9 3 5 4 1 3 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 4 10 15 4 3 13 9 10 1 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 893 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 33. 30. 27. 25. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.7 38.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 10/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 96.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 14.6% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 6.0% 4.3% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 10/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 10/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 48 52 59 62 63 60 57 55 53 49 18HR AGO 30 29 35 42 46 53 56 57 54 51 49 47 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 37 44 47 48 45 42 40 38 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 34 35 32 29 27 25 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT