* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 57 62 69 71 76 79 79 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 57 62 69 71 76 62 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 51 56 60 65 70 62 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 13 12 12 12 20 15 15 7 9 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 1 0 0 0 4 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 60 37 33 31 9 3 339 335 316 270 271 200 253 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.1 29.7 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 150 152 153 156 157 152 158 168 164 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 152 154 158 157 163 164 159 167 176 171 173 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 13 12 14 13 13 12 13 9 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 48 47 44 47 49 51 54 58 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 49 50 54 65 63 63 59 47 27 11 -2 200 MB DIV -7 5 5 19 21 16 -4 -9 16 29 41 43 24 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -1 0 -3 0 2 5 4 2 4 1 LAND (KM) 825 720 576 445 356 400 326 252 185 103 295 -100 201 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.8 56.3 57.8 59.4 62.8 66.3 70.1 74.3 78.8 83.6 88.4 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 17 18 19 21 23 23 22 20 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 57 58 55 56 76 78 91 72 79 85 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 32. 39. 41. 46. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 53.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.9% 11.2% 7.4% 5.8% 11.3% 13.3% 19.2% Logistic: 2.1% 7.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 3.7% 14.1% 50.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 2.4% 7.9% 4.9% 2.9% 2.0% 5.0% 9.4% 23.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 42 49 57 62 69 71 76 62 55 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 46 54 59 66 68 73 59 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 48 53 60 62 67 53 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 39 44 51 53 58 44 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT