* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 55 64 69 78 83 86 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 55 64 69 78 57 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 49 56 65 51 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 9 8 10 11 14 3 3 4 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 1 0 3 5 4 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 77 51 25 20 6 3 349 351 322 108 148 100 98 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.7 29.3 30.6 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 148 149 152 155 157 154 150 152 161 174 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 152 154 158 162 166 164 161 163 173 174 173 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 14 13 12 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 49 48 45 43 44 43 48 56 58 72 77 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 13 11 11 9 10 10 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 37 44 46 53 51 55 69 74 95 75 62 200 MB DIV -12 -4 15 10 4 21 -5 -8 24 51 81 91 81 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -5 -7 -1 -4 2 -1 5 -3 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 907 875 712 562 443 422 344 281 304 279 -116 -84 83 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.1 15.2 14.8 14.3 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 53.5 55.2 56.9 58.7 62.7 66.7 71.0 75.7 80.6 85.4 89.6 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 19 19 20 22 24 24 22 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 39 50 42 58 80 63 102 57 68 76 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -6. -7. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 30. 39. 44. 53. 58. 61. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 51.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 175.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.6% 11.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 14.3% 6.9% 3.8% 2.8% 9.4% 21.5% 57.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 2.4% 9.8% 6.0% 3.6% 0.9% 3.2% 11.7% 19.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 47 55 64 69 78 57 36 39 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 44 52 61 66 75 54 33 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 46 55 60 69 48 27 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 37 46 51 60 39 18 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT