* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 66 71 80 86 91 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 66 71 80 75 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 57 65 74 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 12 9 11 11 15 6 4 5 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -6 -4 -1 0 1 6 2 6 6 0 SHEAR DIR 81 65 50 22 13 354 352 344 333 284 174 104 74 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.7 30.2 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 148 149 153 157 157 152 150 151 174 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 146 147 151 154 160 166 168 163 163 163 174 173 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 11 10 7 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 48 46 46 43 45 50 57 68 78 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 10 12 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 29 34 38 45 57 53 61 71 81 96 72 200 MB DIV -13 -9 -12 9 4 14 4 -7 9 48 93 98 115 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -5 -6 0 -3 -2 6 -1 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 952 894 853 707 556 381 406 333 301 314 -32 -67 88 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.3 15.1 14.6 13.7 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 52.0 53.6 55.2 56.9 60.5 64.5 68.7 73.5 78.6 83.5 87.8 91.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 19 20 22 24 25 23 19 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 46 38 40 52 48 49 85 77 59 51 55 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -0. -3. -1. -1. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 30. 41. 46. 55. 61. 66. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 50.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 158.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.8% 10.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 21.5% 11.6% 8.1% 7.1% 13.5% 12.7% 45.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% Consensus: 2.8% 12.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.4% 4.6% 8.6% 15.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 66 71 80 75 43 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 43 52 63 68 77 72 40 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 47 58 63 72 67 35 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 38 49 54 63 58 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT