* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 45 56 65 74 79 86 91 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 45 56 65 74 79 86 59 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 51 59 68 76 56 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 7 9 7 11 9 12 5 5 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 -1 1 3 7 2 SHEAR DIR 85 85 83 60 27 353 355 323 332 246 208 191 116 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.7 29.6 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 143 145 148 152 155 157 154 150 152 167 175 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 145 148 152 159 163 165 165 161 163 176 175 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 12 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 48 46 45 44 43 45 53 58 71 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 12 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 21 23 20 29 40 48 50 55 63 60 99 77 200 MB DIV -12 -20 -16 -16 0 -14 -8 0 15 41 63 75 75 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -1 -5 -1 -4 2 0 6 -1 1 6 LAND (KM) 1027 953 899 841 683 407 411 333 255 255 231 -87 -21 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.0 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.6 52.2 53.8 55.5 59.0 63.0 66.9 71.3 76.1 81.1 86.0 90.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 19 19 20 22 24 24 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 23 34 48 38 42 46 54 85 60 92 46 75 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 20. 31. 40. 49. 54. 61. 66. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 49.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.2% 10.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 10.9% 5.1% 1.9% 1.3% 5.5% 11.6% 41.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 8.1% 5.1% 2.9% 0.4% 1.8% 8.4% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 35 45 56 65 74 79 86 59 38 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 43 54 63 72 77 84 57 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 38 49 58 67 72 79 52 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 28 39 48 57 62 69 42 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT