* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 54 63 71 77 83 86 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 54 63 71 77 83 86 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 41 50 58 65 71 76 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 10 7 6 12 11 15 8 10 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 1 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 84 84 85 85 63 18 357 10 339 348 305 268 306 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.6 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 140 142 145 150 153 151 151 145 149 149 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 142 145 149 156 160 156 156 151 157 158 167 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 13 11 13 11 12 9 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 49 46 49 47 53 54 59 63 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 19 16 13 28 40 49 55 59 72 61 62 200 MB DIV -1 -3 -20 -19 -21 -17 1 -1 0 31 30 51 71 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -4 -2 0 -7 0 -3 0 4 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 1143 1072 998 921 835 492 288 315 252 158 357 387 -26 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.9 50.5 52.2 53.9 57.4 61.0 64.5 67.9 71.4 75.4 79.6 84.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 17 17 18 20 21 23 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 35 49 37 57 46 36 67 32 64 50 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 29. 38. 46. 52. 58. 61. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 47.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 159.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.0% 10.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 8.7% 4.2% 1.5% 1.4% 3.2% 7.1% 26.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 7.3% 4.8% 2.8% 0.5% 1.1% 6.8% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 44 54 63 71 77 83 86 75 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 42 52 61 69 75 81 84 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 37 47 56 64 70 76 79 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 38 47 55 61 67 70 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT