* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 54 65 71 78 83 90 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 54 65 71 78 83 90 96 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 49 58 67 74 80 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 13 10 10 7 12 10 13 10 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -5 -4 -7 -6 -1 -1 0 2 2 2 7 SHEAR DIR 85 80 81 85 84 40 9 20 347 353 319 335 295 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 139 140 142 148 153 151 149 148 146 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 140 142 144 153 160 155 154 154 153 159 162 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 13 12 13 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 54 53 48 49 48 50 54 58 57 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 7 17 17 24 36 51 52 59 65 67 72 200 MB DIV 17 1 2 -9 -13 -5 -10 1 11 14 29 44 61 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 1 -1 5 0 5 LAND (KM) 1234 1139 1071 987 918 688 359 288 303 178 201 377 139 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 47.2 48.7 50.3 51.9 55.3 58.9 62.4 65.7 69.2 73.0 77.3 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 16 17 18 20 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 37 24 23 33 47 42 57 51 30 50 31 65 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 29. 40. 46. 53. 58. 65. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 45.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.9% 10.1% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 13.7% 7.0% 3.2% 2.2% 3.2% 5.9% 28.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 8.9% 5.7% 3.3% 0.7% 1.1% 6.3% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 43 54 65 71 78 83 90 96 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 41 52 63 69 76 81 88 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 47 58 64 71 76 83 89 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 38 49 55 62 67 74 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT