* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 55 67 76 83 86 93 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 55 67 76 83 86 93 96 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 30 35 42 52 63 72 78 83 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 13 10 12 13 15 15 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -6 -6 -6 -8 -6 0 2 2 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 77 76 70 72 76 53 30 13 9 344 349 333 337 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 138 140 141 147 150 153 150 153 155 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 141 143 150 152 155 153 159 164 162 160 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 12 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 53 55 52 51 52 50 52 53 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 13 13 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 15 4 0 4 11 9 24 35 51 57 53 54 53 200 MB DIV 22 21 12 2 -21 -39 -23 -1 27 0 11 16 41 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 1 -2 -1 -6 -2 -2 0 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1333 1221 1115 1030 944 771 488 254 277 381 304 301 295 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.1 12.8 12.7 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 46.3 48.0 49.6 51.1 54.3 57.0 59.7 62.4 65.6 69.5 74.1 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 15 13 13 14 18 21 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 22 28 39 37 65 61 50 43 78 100 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 21. 30. 42. 51. 58. 61. 68. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 44.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.5% 10.5% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 12.3% 6.2% 2.5% 1.5% 2.2% 9.4% 40.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 8.7% 5.6% 3.1% 0.5% 0.7% 7.2% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 36 46 55 67 76 83 86 93 96 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 44 53 65 74 81 84 91 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 47 59 68 75 78 85 88 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 38 50 59 66 69 76 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT